Nina Jankovic
The Likely Scenario
I left my house this morning with a half- broken bag, under great strain. It was “just waiting to break”; this is what any rational and logical thought process would conclude. Except the bag was especially convenient, better than any other, and I liked it a lot- so I used it. Just one more day I thought, it will sustain my needs, just one more day. I had hope, even though in reality I had complete control over changing the situation and ultimately the outcome- hope is a silly word to use. I could have simply used another bag, or I could have eliminated the need for a bag. However, I didn’t because as irrational as it is, the human psyche of this culture has hope. Soon the bag was no longer braking but it was fully broken. The bag broke before I got home. In my current situation I couldn’t simply substitute it with another. With great difficulty caused by my optimism, I made it back home. What makes this worse is something I should have probably mentioned earlier. About a year prior to the above scenario, I was in the exact same situation with another bag that also couldn’t continue to meet my demanding needs. Similarly, it too demonstrated signs of collapse but I ignored them. It seems I have too much hope. A bag breaks, I replace it- when does the destruction and substitution STOP? What keeps me from accurate prediction, even when the outcome is obvious? What keeps my eyes goggled and hands muffled, repeatedly?
Now reread the paragraph above, but this time don’t imagine me struggling (first mentally and later physically) to carry the bag but imagine the civilization carrying a barrel of oil on its back. Envision the civilization talking in the first person. The scenario described above can be interpreted to represent our current situation as the oil peak approaches, as it is happening and the consequences we will face; except I’m not sure if we will make it back home.
Predicted Time Line of the Circumstances of the World in Terms of Oil over the next 20 Years (As affects on the Industrialized World)
2010
The word oil will peak by this year. Taking aside new discoveries (since it is not valid to assume new major discoveries with out any pattern or evidence pointing in this direction, and we should not consider the horrific suggestion of global warming exposing new oil reserves) and looking at oil production increase and demand increase- of about 2% each year- it is clear that time is not a comfort. Also consider that “non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Britain, Norway, and Mexico, who satisfy 60 percent of world oil demand, are already in a production plateau or decline.” (p.1, Cavallo) Prices of oil will drastically rise. Oil will peak and decline abruptly.
2015
A Great Depression scenario will be in effect, because of the sharp decline in oil production.
-People are still not organized and haven’t changed their way of life in order to sustain. The wealthy are by now prepared for a complete switch to solar power, for when the last drop of oil is burned by their vehicles; which are far worse monsters than this years(2005) Hummer (driving a militaristic style car at this point is fitting for the capitalist).
2030
Mass death: due to a lack of knowledge and practice of sustainable ways of life. No oil, No options, No life. There is conflict and struggle for resources between the surviving population, which is now in small, isolated and subsistence based villages. World demand by now is 120 million barrels per day. (p.1, Cavallo)
The Village Future is still possible and seems to be the most positive option, however judging by the current mindset and stance of the civilization’s government and people- change to a sustainable way of life seems unlikely. This becomes more evident after realizing that the Hirsch report essentially wants to substitute oil with other flues and energy sources, rather than solve the deeper problem at the core of this society. Therefore, the most likely scenario is sequential and since the last part of the sequence- the Global Nuclear Apocalypse- will ultimately come, this is obviously the last stage. The Amish with the internet in this case will clearly be either unsuccessful or never implemented. If the civilization continues, there will be a chain effect, however not all stages must be obtained to reach the final stage.
Predictions of Future Conditions Based on the Hirsch Report
This report recognizes that without any action or “timely mitigation” strategies peak oil will lead to an economic, social and political downfall. “Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization.”(pg.8) Also, the study is aware that this is a major issue that must be dealt with and moderating it will be difficult (time consuming and expensive). However, they think that peak can be delayed and oil can be replaced with other fuels, thus peak oil will not have a large impact on the economy or our daily lives; the problem is not “insoluble”. It is unclear from the study when the world peak oil will occur and the blurred predictions given are even said to be “uncertain.” The study does not conclude any particular year, though reference is made to “expert” and “competent forecasters” calculations. If they are described as such we can infer that these are the dates that the study suspects oil will peak. However, the references made predict different dates:
1. “Some experts believe peaking may occur soon. This study indicates that ‘soon’ is within 20 years.” (pg.5)
2. “A number of competent forecasters project peaking within a decade; others contend it will occur later.” (pg.64)
In creating a time line which analyzes this report, I will negotiation between the different dates presented and conclude from the study that peak is projected for 15 years from the year the report was written, 2005.
2010
Production continues to increase, as does demand. We are already 10 years behind the needed time to start the mitigation strategies and processes. However if we start the crash programs now (2010), they can have a significant impact (worldly) of relief. “The inescapable conclusion is that more than a decade will be required for the collective contributions to produce results that significantly impact world supply and demand for liquid fuels.”(pg.5) Mitigation initiatives begin. Technological breakthroughs begin, that will help the decline after peak be smoother (mitigate the problem).
2015
Aggressive mitigation programs – the crash programs- are in place. Liquid fuel prices rise dramatically as peak approaches, and are managed through the mitigation programs that attempt to control supply and demand of oil. Mitigation includes moderating commercial options such as:
1. Delaying peak by increasing production through improved oil recovery; including the moderation of reservoirs which have already peaked.
2. Significant production increase of low grade oil such as oil sands.
3. Coal liquefaction increase to be used as a substitute fuel, since there is an abundance of coal reserves.
4. Increase in liquefied natural gas, to be used as a substitute fuel. Exploitation of this resource may prove to be difficult because of the resources remote location and the competition with growing demand.
2020
World oil production has peaked. This means that the mitigation process should have begun in the year 2000, since they must begin 20 years before peak in order to avoid a world liquid fuel shortfall. “If mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), which would translate to
significant economic hardship.”(pg.65)
2030
World oil demand has grown by 50% from what it was in 2005. If mitigation processes were effective, as they were implemented late but were supposedly very aggressive with the help of the government- there shouldn’t be a drastic or unbearable change in society and the way people lead their daily lives. Mitigation is effective partially due to the help of the government “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.”(pg.5)
The Likely Scenario
I left my house this morning with a half- broken bag, under great strain. It was “just waiting to break”; this is what any rational and logical thought process would conclude. Except the bag was especially convenient, better than any other, and I liked it a lot- so I used it. Just one more day I thought, it will sustain my needs, just one more day. I had hope, even though in reality I had complete control over changing the situation and ultimately the outcome- hope is a silly word to use. I could have simply used another bag, or I could have eliminated the need for a bag. However, I didn’t because as irrational as it is, the human psyche of this culture has hope. Soon the bag was no longer braking but it was fully broken. The bag broke before I got home. In my current situation I couldn’t simply substitute it with another. With great difficulty caused by my optimism, I made it back home. What makes this worse is something I should have probably mentioned earlier. About a year prior to the above scenario, I was in the exact same situation with another bag that also couldn’t continue to meet my demanding needs. Similarly, it too demonstrated signs of collapse but I ignored them. It seems I have too much hope. A bag breaks, I replace it- when does the destruction and substitution STOP? What keeps me from accurate prediction, even when the outcome is obvious? What keeps my eyes goggled and hands muffled, repeatedly?
Now reread the paragraph above, but this time don’t imagine me struggling (first mentally and later physically) to carry the bag but imagine the civilization carrying a barrel of oil on its back. Envision the civilization talking in the first person. The scenario described above can be interpreted to represent our current situation as the oil peak approaches, as it is happening and the consequences we will face; except I’m not sure if we will make it back home.
Predicted Time Line of the Circumstances of the World in Terms of Oil over the next 20 Years (As affects on the Industrialized World)
2010
The word oil will peak by this year. Taking aside new discoveries (since it is not valid to assume new major discoveries with out any pattern or evidence pointing in this direction, and we should not consider the horrific suggestion of global warming exposing new oil reserves) and looking at oil production increase and demand increase- of about 2% each year- it is clear that time is not a comfort. Also consider that “non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Britain, Norway, and Mexico, who satisfy 60 percent of world oil demand, are already in a production plateau or decline.” (p.1, Cavallo) Prices of oil will drastically rise. Oil will peak and decline abruptly.
2015
A Great Depression scenario will be in effect, because of the sharp decline in oil production.
-People are still not organized and haven’t changed their way of life in order to sustain. The wealthy are by now prepared for a complete switch to solar power, for when the last drop of oil is burned by their vehicles; which are far worse monsters than this years(2005) Hummer (driving a militaristic style car at this point is fitting for the capitalist).
2030
Mass death: due to a lack of knowledge and practice of sustainable ways of life. No oil, No options, No life. There is conflict and struggle for resources between the surviving population, which is now in small, isolated and subsistence based villages. World demand by now is 120 million barrels per day. (p.1, Cavallo)
The Village Future is still possible and seems to be the most positive option, however judging by the current mindset and stance of the civilization’s government and people- change to a sustainable way of life seems unlikely. This becomes more evident after realizing that the Hirsch report essentially wants to substitute oil with other flues and energy sources, rather than solve the deeper problem at the core of this society. Therefore, the most likely scenario is sequential and since the last part of the sequence- the Global Nuclear Apocalypse- will ultimately come, this is obviously the last stage. The Amish with the internet in this case will clearly be either unsuccessful or never implemented. If the civilization continues, there will be a chain effect, however not all stages must be obtained to reach the final stage.
Predictions of Future Conditions Based on the Hirsch Report
This report recognizes that without any action or “timely mitigation” strategies peak oil will lead to an economic, social and political downfall. “Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization.”(pg.8) Also, the study is aware that this is a major issue that must be dealt with and moderating it will be difficult (time consuming and expensive). However, they think that peak can be delayed and oil can be replaced with other fuels, thus peak oil will not have a large impact on the economy or our daily lives; the problem is not “insoluble”. It is unclear from the study when the world peak oil will occur and the blurred predictions given are even said to be “uncertain.” The study does not conclude any particular year, though reference is made to “expert” and “competent forecasters” calculations. If they are described as such we can infer that these are the dates that the study suspects oil will peak. However, the references made predict different dates:
1. “Some experts believe peaking may occur soon. This study indicates that ‘soon’ is within 20 years.” (pg.5)
2. “A number of competent forecasters project peaking within a decade; others contend it will occur later.” (pg.64)
In creating a time line which analyzes this report, I will negotiation between the different dates presented and conclude from the study that peak is projected for 15 years from the year the report was written, 2005.
2010
Production continues to increase, as does demand. We are already 10 years behind the needed time to start the mitigation strategies and processes. However if we start the crash programs now (2010), they can have a significant impact (worldly) of relief. “The inescapable conclusion is that more than a decade will be required for the collective contributions to produce results that significantly impact world supply and demand for liquid fuels.”(pg.5) Mitigation initiatives begin. Technological breakthroughs begin, that will help the decline after peak be smoother (mitigate the problem).
2015
Aggressive mitigation programs – the crash programs- are in place. Liquid fuel prices rise dramatically as peak approaches, and are managed through the mitigation programs that attempt to control supply and demand of oil. Mitigation includes moderating commercial options such as:
1. Delaying peak by increasing production through improved oil recovery; including the moderation of reservoirs which have already peaked.
2. Significant production increase of low grade oil such as oil sands.
3. Coal liquefaction increase to be used as a substitute fuel, since there is an abundance of coal reserves.
4. Increase in liquefied natural gas, to be used as a substitute fuel. Exploitation of this resource may prove to be difficult because of the resources remote location and the competition with growing demand.
2020
World oil production has peaked. This means that the mitigation process should have begun in the year 2000, since they must begin 20 years before peak in order to avoid a world liquid fuel shortfall. “If mitigation were to be too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will be achieved through massive demand destruction (shortages), which would translate to
significant economic hardship.”(pg.65)
2030
World oil demand has grown by 50% from what it was in 2005. If mitigation processes were effective, as they were implemented late but were supposedly very aggressive with the help of the government- there shouldn’t be a drastic or unbearable change in society and the way people lead their daily lives. Mitigation is effective partially due to the help of the government “Intervention by governments will be required, because the economic and social implications of oil peaking would otherwise be chaotic.”(pg.5)
posted by Nina Jankovic at 23:54
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